Clarity Act goes down to the wire as Democrats swat away GOP’s “final” offer
Cloture takes 60 yes votes out of 100 senators; Republicans hold 53, so they are 7 short.
What was in the offer, and why Democrats turned it down
The offer Republicans put forward on Sunday, which they called their “last, best and final offer”: a text of more than 600 pages; 126 changes Democrats had asked for; an ethics package Trump had signed off on, under which officials could no longer mint their own coins and would have to sell big crypto stakes or put them in a blind trust.
Democrats read it and passed. They piled into Chuck Schumer’s office Monday and by nightfall had a counteroffer on the GOP’s desk. The fight is still about Trump, whose family pulled in more than $1.4 billion from crypto last year. Democrats say the new text still keeps state attorneys general from going after the president directly, and hands the Office of Government Ethics a hall pass it could use to let senior officials hang on to their crypto side hustles.
Who’s pushing back, and what happens after the vote
The math is brutal. Today’s cloture vote, set for 2:15 p.m. ET, is the procedural hurdle that breaks a filibuster and puts the bill on the floor. It needs 60. Republicans have 53. Polymarket traders give Clarity an 18% shot at becoming law this year.
The U.S. Senate has 100 seats and Republicans hold 53; cloture, the procedural hurdle that breaks a filibuster, takes 60 yes votes.
Clear it, and there’s still floor debate, amendments, a final vote and a trip back to the House. Miss it, with the midterms bearing down, and Clarity is probably a 2027 problem.
If cloture clears, floor debate, amendments, a final vote and a trip back to the House are still ahead; if it fails, with the midterms bearing down, the bill probably slips to 2027.
the percentage is the price of “yes”: what the market pays for the bet, not a forecast of ours