Bitcoin is trading at 22% a year: calmer than this on just 9 days in nine years. SOL has never been this still
How compressed is volatility right now?
Below today’s levels the record thins out fast. Bitcoin has been there for 9 days in nine years, Ethereum for 62, Solana never. And this isn’t just the market growing up. Restrict the history to the last two years and the percentiles barely move: 0.5 for BTC, 1.9 for ETH, 0.1 for SOL.
The table reports: coin btc, 30d vol 22.4%, percentile 0.3, median 55.4%, all-time low 16.8%; coin eth, 30d vol 32.4%, percentile 1.9, median 74.5%, all-time low 15.0%; coin sol, 30d vol 31.3%, percentile 0.0, median 92.1%, all-time low 31.3% · yesterday.
Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility from 2017 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 22.4% annualized against a historical median of 55.4%. Below the current level the record holds 9 days out of nine years.
Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility from 2017 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 32.4% annualized against a historical median of 74.5%. Below the current level the record holds 62 days.
Solana’s 30-day realized volatility from 2020 to August 13, 2026. Today it is trading at 31.3% annualized against a historical median of 92.1%, the all-time low of its six years, set yesterday. Below the current level there isn’t a single day on record.
The candles say the same thing on both scales. Measured day for day, August is the second-tightest start to a month on record for BTC and ETH, and the tightest ever for SOL, which had already set the narrowest monthly candle of its life in July.
To keep the incomplete periods honest, the comparison is done day for day. The first 13 days of August go up against the first 13 of every month on record, and the first 4 days of this week against the first 4 of every week. On the weekly candle BTC is deeply compressed but shy of a record, ETH is right at the edge, and SOL is first outright again. Its record for a completed week was set in April 2026. On this timeframe the entire squeeze is a this-year story.
The table reports: coin btc, month open 2nd of 107, week open 21st of 467, july candle 15.8% · 12th; coin eth, month open 2nd of 107, week open 7th of 467, july candle 27.6% · 27th; coin sol, month open 1st of 71, week open 1st of 311, july candle 16.2% · record.
Solana’s 71 monthly candles by range. July 2026, at 16.2%, is its all-time record for compression; August in progress is narrower still, day for day. The historical median is 60.6%.
Solana’s 311 weeks by range. The 5 weeks of the current run all sit below the 10th percentile, with a sixth under way: the longest compressed run in its history. The historical median is 22.7%.
How long do compressed runs last, and which way do they break?
We flag a candle as compressed when its range lands in the coin’s lowest decile, below the 10th percentile of its own history (weekly: 5.9% BTC · 8.3% ETH · 11.5% SOL). Taken across every run, BTC breaks higher three times out of four, ETH is a coin flip, SOL is 10↑/8↓. But when a run persists past two weeks the picture flips. Across the 17 closed persistent runs the one-month outcome is negative 11 times, median −11.8%, with violent tails in both directions (−45% to +37%). The full list:
btc · 7 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 3↑ 4↓, median −5.7%: run 22 Oct – 5 Nov 2018, length 3, break −12.2%, +4 wks −45.0%, +8 wks −38.2%; run 29 Jun – 13 Jul 2020, length 3, break +7.8%, +4 wks +29.3%, +8 wks +12.2%; run 19 Dec 22 – 2 Jan 23, length 3, break +21.9%, +4 wks +33.9%, +8 wks +31.0%; run 17 Jul – 7 Aug 2023, length 4, break −10.6%, +4 wks −11.8%, +8 wks −4.7%; run 2 – 9 Oct 2023, length 2, break +10.5%, +4 wks +36.5%, +8 wks +61.3%; run 25 Aug – 15 Sep 2025, length 4, break −2.7%, +4 wks −5.7%, +8 wks −18.2%; run 22 – 29 Dec 2025, length 2, break −0.6%, +4 wks −15.9%, +8 wks −28.1%; run 27 Jul – today · in progress, length 2, break not yet, +4 wks not yet, +8 wks not yet. eth · 7 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 3↑ 4↓, median −1.7%: run 4 – 11 Nov 2019, length 2, break −23.9%, +4 wks −22.5%, +8 wks −20.3%; run 19 – 26 Dec 2022, length 2, break +7.5%, +4 wks +37.0%, +8 wks +36.7%; run 26 Jun – 3 Jul 2023, length 2, break +3.2%, +4 wks −1.7%, +8 wks −12.2%; run 17 Jul – 7 Aug 2023, length 4, break −8.4%, +4 wks −12.1%, +8 wks −11.3%; run 4 – 18 Sep 2023, length 3, break +9.7%, +4 wks +5.3%, +8 wks +27.3%; run 9 – 16 Oct 2023, length 2, break +7.9%, +4 wks +20.9%, +8 wks +32.0%; run 27 May – 3 Jun 2024, length 2, break −2.2%, +4 wks −20.9%, +8 wks −27.5%. sol · 3 closed runs · at +4 weeks: 0↑ 3↓, median −21.2%: run 1 – 15 May 2023, length 3, break +6.1%, +4 wks −21.2%, +8 wks +39.8%; run 22 Dec 25 – 12 Jan 26, length 4, break −13.8%, +4 wks −37.5%, +8 wks −33.1%; run 6 – 27 Apr 2026, length 4, break +15.0%, +4 wks −20.7%, +8 wks −2.8%; run 6 Jul – today · in progress, length 5, break not yet, +4 wks not yet, +8 wks not yet.
The expansion is certain, the direction isn’t. Eleven episodes out of eleven saw volatility explode within 90 days, from 18–32% to 37–60%. But 2022–23 resolved higher and 2025–26 resolved lower, every single time.
A calm episode is a stretch of consecutive days with 30-day vol below the August 13, 2026 level; returns are measured from the close of the last day. SOL doesn’t have a single one. The full list:
The table reports: era 2022–23, btc at +90 days +39.9%, eth at +90 days +26.3%; era 2025–26, btc at +90 days −13.0%, eth at +90 days in progress.
btc · 4 episodes: episode 12–16 Aug 2023 · all-time low, +30 d −7.4%, +60 d −5.5%, +90 d +23.7%; episode 30 Sep 2023, +30 d +27.9%, +60 d +40.4%, +90 d +56.0%; episode 9–10 Aug 2025, +30 d −6.5%, +60 d +2.0%, +90 d −14.2%; episode 12 Aug 2025, +30 d −3.9%, +60 d −7.9%, +90 d −11.8%. eth · 8 episodes: episode 22 Oct 2022, +30 d −15.7%, +60 d −7.6%, +90 d +26.3%; episode 4–5 Jun 2023, +30 d +5.5%, +60 d +1.1%, +90 d −9.6%; episode 5–28 Aug 2023 · all-time low, +30 d −3.3%, +60 d +7.6%, +90 d +24.8%; episode 16–20 Sep 2023, +30 d −1.1%, +60 d +24.0%, +90 d +34.3%; episode 22 Sep – 3 Oct 2023, +30 d +8.7%, +60 d +30.7%, +90 d +42.0%; episode 12–15 Oct 2023, +30 d +27.1%, +60 d +48.6%, +90 d +65.5%; episode 8 Nov 2023, +30 d +24.9%, +60 d +17.7%, +90 d +25.7%; episode 20 May – 1 Jun 2026 · in progress, +30 d −19.8%, +60 d −7.2%, +90 d not yet.
Why is Solana a case of its own?
In the 2023 hibernation, when BTC sank to 17%, SOL never dropped below 40%. For an asset whose historical median is 92%, trading at 31% means two-thirds of its character has gone missing. And it is in exactly the setup that has always ended badly in its few precedents. After a compressed run of 2+ weeks, SOL was lower four weeks later in 3 cases out of 3.
The table reports: figure 0, days in its history calmer than today; figure 0.0 · 0.0, historical percentile, 30- and 50-day windows; figure 5 weeks, compressed run in progress, the longest ever; figure −66%, distance from its historical median, 31.3% against 92.1%.